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The Recession Is Over!

The recession is over, but not the pain.

Canada's central bank predicted Thursday that the economy would expand this quarter, suggesting the economic contraction lasted for about nine months, considerably shorter than the previous two recessions in the early 1990s and the early 1980s.

The Bank of Canada'shttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif reassessment of the state of the economy is perhaps the clearest signal yet that the worst of the recession is over.

Buoyed by the prospect of better days ahead, investors rushed to buy Canadian stocks, adding new life to an near five-month rally that economists said has played a big role in reversing Canada's fortunes.

The Standard & Poor'shttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif/TSX Composite Index rose 243.33 points to 10,675.68, the highest in six weeks. Canada's dollar jumped about 1 per cent to 92.04 U.S. cents, the strongest in almost two months.

Yet Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney stopped short of celebration, saying it will take more than a year to replace the wealth destroyed by the financial crisis.

A graphic example of the hole out of which Canada's economy has to climb is the “output gap,” which measures the difference between current economic activity and the level of production policy makers reckon the economy can sustain without causing rapid inflation.

The Bank of Canada's conventional measure of output gap was -4.3 per cent in the second quarter, the widest deficit on record dating back to 1985.

“We are on track for the recovery both in Canada and globally,” Mr. Carney said at a news conference. “But it's early days. It's a long road.”

Canadian policy makers attributed their brighter outlook to improved confidence around the globe, reflected in the Dow Jones Industrial Average'shttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/mag-glass_10x10.gif 2-per-cent jump yesterday, sending the New York-based index above 9,000 for the first time since January.

The Bank of Canada, which employs more than 300 economists and runs 21 models, predicted in April that gross domestic product would contract 1 per cent in the current quarter and that growth wouldn't return until the final three months of 2009.

As it turns out, policy makers underestimated Canadian consumers' ability to weather the deepest global recession since the Second World War and the central bank's own ability to erect a bulwark against the storm.

Mr. Carney and his senior deputies remain surprised that household credit continued to expand through the recession, providing a measure of support for domestic spending that kept the collapse in exports and rising unemployment rates from taking a greater toll.

The fact that family borrowing continued to increase at its historic pace of about 8 per cent a quarter reflects an increase in home buying – purchases that were encouraged by mortgage rates that fell to record lows as the Bank of Canada dropped its benchmark lending rate to an unprecedented 0.25 per cent and set up emergency cash auctions to ensure banks had access to enough money to continue lending.

“We've seen some remarkable policy response to the economic issues, not just on a regional basis, but on a global basis,” said Daniel Bain, president and chief investment officer at Toronto-based Thornmark Asset Management Inc., which oversees investments worth about $460-million. “It's almost unimaginable where we would be if there had not been some intervention.”

It will be months before Statistics Canada officially dates the latest economic downturn.

 

 

 

Here are a few of my favorite past articles from my Lethbridge real estate and mortgage blog you might have missed or wish to recommend them to a friend.

WANTED: Single Women: - Single women are a hot mortgage market
Common Financial Problems - Avoid these financial mistakes
Get Your Credit Score UP - Invaluable insight into your credit score
Mortgage Guidelines Get Tighter - Harder and harder to borrow money
Is Your Mortgage Company Out of Business in 2009? - What to do when your bank goes broke
What is wrong with MLS - Is your info being abused?
Survivor - Real Estate Edition - Let's vote a few more off the island

 

 

 

lethbridge realtor

Robert May is a Realtor, as well as the broker and owner of Rainbow Realty of Lethbridge Alberta . He is also a licensed Lethbridge mortgage broker and financing expert with Canada First Mortgage of Calgary Alberta. He has been in the Lethbridge real estate industry since 1993 and offers full MLS real estate services to Lethbridge and surrounding area, as well as Lethbridge mortgage financing, mortgage refinancing , preapprovals, and Lethbridge heloc financing to Lethbridge and Southern Alberta. He can be found online at this link: mortgage broker Lethbridge





Let me share my 15 years experience in the local Lethbridge real estate and financing market with you! It is the first step towards making a profitable real estate decision.

 

lethbridge real estate

lethbridge realtor

Robert W May is a Real Estate Broker in Lethbridge Alberta, having now been in the industry for over 23 years. . He was also a licensed Lethbridge mortgage broker and financing expert with Canada First Mortgage of Calgary Alberta for the past 10 years.  He is an industry leader always willing to help train and educate others in how to improve their business models for financial and personal benefit.




 

 

Comment balloon 6 commentsRobert May • July 25 2009 11:20AM

Comments

Robert, do you think this upward trend will continue? Or will we have another downward dip this winter?

Posted by Maria Morton, Kansas City Real Estate 816-560-3758 (Chartwell Kansas City Realty) almost 10 years ago

Hi Robert, I believe you are correct the worst seems to be over but we still have a way to go.  And, the good news is that the good times always return. 

Posted by Bill Ladewig, Experience Is Your Advantage (LoanOfficerSchool.com) almost 10 years ago

My marketplace has had a pretty solid inventory change and things are almost back to where they were before the market boom and bust.  I think we are back on track and the marketplace will be completely back to normal one the lending practices return to normalicy too.

Posted by Robert May, Real estate consulting (Robert W May - Lethbridge Real Estate) almost 10 years ago

I think we have pulled back from the abyss. But I am not sure the bad times are over yet. Good post and thank you

Posted by Charlie Ragonesi, Homes - Big Canoe, Jasper, North Georgia Pros (AllMountainRealty.com) almost 10 years ago

Robert - I am sorry to say my friend that this is not the trend in Las Vegas Nevada! Even though the sales have been in the records for sales, people are only looking at the one end of it which is the sales. there were more lost homes due to for-closer than any sales lately.

 I really like you positive approach to the market and Las Vegas continues to grow in leaps and bounds but this late Fall & Winter in going to be the (Killer)!

 Just wait till you see what is going down at the end of the year.

 2010 is going to be the start of a real upswing in the market!

 Vegas Bob

Posted by Robert Vegas Bob Swetz, Las Vegas Henderson Homes for Sale (Realty ONE Group) almost 10 years ago

Mmmm...very informative post.    I'm not sure that I agree with the "recession is over" optimism.   I have a concern over rising unemployment.    Also about inflationary trend.

Posted by Li Read, Caring expertise...knowledge for you! (Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring)) almost 10 years ago

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